ODDS-ON favourites never lose.
They can slip up now and then, but in the race for the South Down seat at last week’s Westminster election, Sinn Fein’s Chris Hazzard was always going to be the winner, but not perhaps by the runaway margin he would have anticipated.
He was quickly out of the stalls, blowing away the challenge of the SDLP’s Colin McGrath and at the finishing line had a staggering 9,280 votes to spare.
The bookies were never in any danger on having to pay out on the favourite losing with Hazzard
topping the poll with 19,698 votes — 3,561 more than five years ago. He also increased his majority by a whopping 7,680.
Last week’s Westminster election was the first since new electoral boundary changes were introduced, but the loss of parts of Downpatrick and wider East Down and Lecale to Strangford, including the MP’s home village of Drumaness, made no difference to the outcome.
Mr Hazzard — who ended three decades of SDLP domination in South Down in 2017 — saw his vote increase by almost 13%. He secured 43.5% of the South Down vote — more than double the SDLP’s share.
And the margin of his victory will send alarm bells ringing at Alliance Party headquarters.
The Sinn Fein vote will inevitably increase ahead of the next Assembly election and if the Alliance vote continues to decline, Republicans could well have three South Down MLAs at Stormont.
Alliance’s Andy McMurray polled 3,187 votes which was a decrease of almost 3,800 votes from 2019 when Patrick Brown was the candidate.
Elsewhere, it was a relatively good election for the DUP with Diane Forsythe increasing her 2022 Assembly performance and her party remaining the voice of unionism in South Down.
She polled 7,340 votes, with the combined total of the UUP and TUV vote just over 4,000 less.
The election result makes uncomfortable reading for the UUP which has much work to do.
Its vote is down almost 2,000 since 2019 with Michael O’Loan — contesting his first election or the party — outpolled by the TUV’s Jim Wells, albeit by just 482 votes.
Aontu’s Rosemary McGlone, who has now fought several elections, saw the party vote decline by 469 from its 2019 Westminster performance, with the Green Party’s Declan Walsh polling 444 votes.
The party did not contest the 2019 election.
Mr Hazzard, who turns 40 next month, said no matter what background or community people come from, Sinn Féin MPs will work hard every day to deliver on the things that matter to workers, families and businesses in every community.
He said Sinn Fein MPs will be knocking on the door of the new Labour government to demand a stop to the “disgraceful underfunding of our public services and of the Executive here”.
Mr Hazzard said it is now time to move forward to a new and better future.
Delighted with his runaway victory he added: “What a smashing endorsement for strong leadership and positive change and, most importantly, a different vision for the future and for decisions about our lives to be taken at home here in Ireland.
“It’s fantastic to be elected again for the third time as the MP for South Down. This result demonstrates that elections are fought on the ground, not Twitter and I think this is a great endorsement of our record of delivery.
Mr McGrath said the South Down result indicated that a significant number of people still subscribe to the view that only consensus politics can create a truly shared home place.
The defeated candidate, who secured 10,418 votes, said his party could hold its head high
“Our result is an improvement on the Assembly election of two years ago and shows that within the constituency of South Down, there is still a will to take the SDLP view and we will continue to do that,” he said.
“While I’m disappointed that I was unsuccessful in this election, I do take heart in the fact that over 10,000 people gave the SDLP in South Down their vote in this election.”
Diane Forsythe said she was delighted with her result which saw a 13% increase on her 2022 Assembly election performance.
“This election had low turnout of 59% in South Down with the overall Unionist vote ping significantly and to achieve an increase in the South Down DUP vote demonstrates a strong endorsement of our team in this area,” she added.
Alliance’s Andy McMurray said his party had to gather itself and go again.
The decision by former colleague Patrick Brown to quit the party a few months ago plunged the former Slieve Croob councillor into the spotlight. He was co-opted to replace Brown at the Assembly and chosen as the party’s Westminster candidate.
And while the party vote collapsed rom 6,916 in 2019 to just 3,187 — a decrease of 3,729 — McMurray remains confident there is a solid Alliance vote in South Down and a firm foundation to build for the future.
“We gather ourselves up and go again,” he declared.
“There is still a core Alliance vote in South Down but it is hard to tell what happened and where the votes went. Every election is different and there is always a different context, but there is an Alliance vote and we will continue to work for the people who voted for us and others,” he added.
The UUP’s Michael O’Loan said while he hoped there might have been more of a liberal unionist vote in South Down his party was “still in the game and had something to play for in the future”.
He insisted the UUP will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that Northern Ireland's voice is heard and that its place in the United Kingdom is secure.
Mr O'Loan said the party now has time to build towards the next local council and Assembly elections and cement its team further.
“We have a core vote to build on and I believe there is more of a vote than we showed today,” he said, hoping the Ulster Unionist electorate will sit back and reflect on the outcome of the election and come forward with its support at future polls.
Aontu’s Rosemary McGlone polled 797 votes, with the Green Party’s Declan Walsh securing 444 votes.
Conservative candidate Hannah Westropp, who polled the lowest vote of Northern Ireland’s 136 candidates, said she would be more than willing to stand again in South Down.
She polled just 46 votes but has no regrets about putting herself in front of the electorate and challenging the established parties.
“I’m here representing a national party on a night that is not going to go down in history as the best night for the Conservatives, but I am incredibly proud to have been here and had the opportunity to stand and to be part of the Northern Ireland political scene,” she added.
In an interesting footnote, turnout across the constituency was down from 63.11% to 59.64% but it had no bearing on the Sinn Fein man’s performance and while 45,472 eligible voters went to the poll, 30,776 did not.
Interestingly, the number of eligible voters compared to 2019 decreased by almost 2,930 but a sizeable number stayed at home.